UPDATE: Earl Drifts Eastward, But Watch Still in Effect

Update: The latest National Weather Service at 6 a.m. on Fridays maps show little change in the wind speed probabilities for lower Fairfield County, with a 20-30% chance of tropical storm force winds now projected.

The tropical storm watch for Westport nd surroundings remains in effect.

Storm surge projections show a slightly higher probability of a two foot surge or greater, now at 20-30%. High tide this evening is around 6:18 p.m.

Update, Thursday 1:43 p.m.: The latest National Weather Service bulletin says there's a 48% chance of tropical storm conditions in lower Fairfield County, up from 40% in the last update.

"There is an increasing chance for combined storm surge and astronomical tide waters up to 2 to 3 feet above mean sea level within areas closer to the coast, resulting in worst case flood inundation up to 1 to 2 feet above ground level somewhere within the surge zone," the NWS reports.

"Large waves Friday into the weekend will cause substantial beach erosion," the service adds.

Earl is projected to pass some 150 miles east of Montauk Friday night. As of 12 p.m., storm center was about 680 miles south of New York City.

Original Story

As of 8 p.m. Wednesday, the National Weather Service said that the probability of Lower Fairfield County experiencing tropical storm conditions had climbed slightly to 40 percent, though the NWS's models still projected winds to stay "just below tropical storm force." 

The odds of hurricane conditions are "very low," the service said, but coastal areas of the county could still experience a 4- to 6-foot storm surge in a worst case scenario. 

"There is a general concern for the chance of areas of minor to moderate coastal flooding," the NWS said. "The best chance of moderate flooding will be across western Long Island Sound."

The NWS also warned of "life threatening" rip currents along Atlantic-facing shores.

By late Thursday, the center of Earl is expected to approach the North Carolina shore, which is now under a hurricane warning.