Nor' Easter Sunday To Bring Heavy Rain and Strong Winds

Westport has been in a drought, with calm weather, no precipitation, and boring forecasts.  But that is about to change.  A train of storms will be impacting the area over the next few weeks.  

The first storm, which will be the focus of this post, is a large Nor' Easter that will impact the region Sunday night into Monday morning.  With it there is the threat of high winds, thunderstorms, and driving rains bringing in flooding and power outages.  The worst of the storm, per current forecasts, looks to be between 1 AM and 7 AM Monday morning, meaning that it is very possible that some schools in the area could be affected as they could lose power or have roads blocked by downed trees or downed power lines.  Conditions are likely to be extremely dangerous Monday morning as the winds will continue throughout the day and many rivers will rise over their banks, and there will be ponding on numerous roadways.

 This is a very dangerous situation, and I advise everyone to stay home on Monday if at all possible.  Still, more details need to come in on the storm before I can say anything definitively.  What is happening is that tomorrow a cold front will approach the region and weaken as it does so.  We will likely see light showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm from it, but nothing severe.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does have us in a chance of thunderstorms, but not in the severe sector, so I am not too worried about that.  The rain and storms will move through Saturday night, and then Sunday morning a low pressure center will start to form in the Gulf of Mexico and then move up to around the Outer Banks of North Carolina come Sunday afternoon.  From there, models diverge a little, with some models bringing the storm center over Atlantic City, New Jersey, some bring it over NYC or over our region, and a few still bring it over Southeastern Connecticut, although that is appearing less and less likely.

 As of right now, I am expected a track through central New Jersey, which will put us right in line for some of the strongest winds and rain from the storm.  Wind gusts to 50-55 mph are not out of the question, and we could see rain totals over 4 inches in some areas across SW CT.  

Some have compared this storm to the one in March 2010, but I do not think the winds will be quite as strong.  During the storm, in some of the really bad thunderstorms, we could see the strong wind gusts that bring down trees still, but not as widespread as the March 2010 Nor' Easter.  Another Nor' Easter in April 2007 looks to be a good analog for this event, as that had very heavy rain with widespread flooding, but not quite as much in the way of wind damage.  

Still, the winds will be howling and there will be a lot of flooding which will make many roads impassable on Monday.  If the storm ends up shifting east and goes over us, then the winds will be worse earlier Monday morning and die down by 3 or 4 AM, and the rain will also end earlier, meaning the storm as a whole will not be as bad.  If the track shifts further east and the storm goes to our east, we will see little in the ways of wind, but even more rain potentially that will last longer into Monday.  

Regardless, I believe the storm will track to our west, and some models that are coming out now have the storm going even further west than I expected, meaning that the winds could be even worse.  If the storm moves to our west, it could in a lot of ways be like Irene, as there is certainly a similar setup here in terms of wind and rain, although the winds once again will likely not be QUITE as bad.  A wind advisory will still certainly be issued and a high wind warning may still also be necessary, but we will have to see what the National Weather Service issues as we get closer to the event.  At this point, they have only issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the region, but that will change likely tomorrow when a Flood Watch will go up.  Prepare accordingly and secure all outdoor items, as well as preparing any flood action kits or weather prepardness kits that you may have.  Expect to lose power and with this storm prepare for the worst, as there is still a lot unknown, but the potential is there for a storm to impact this community that we will remember for years to come.